Billie Eilish vs. Taylor Swift: Who Will Score Next Week’s No. 1 Album?

The Contenders is a midweek column that looks at artists aiming for the top of the Billboard charts, and the strategies behind their efforts. Next week (for the upcoming Billboard 200 dated June 1), it’s a superstar showdown between Billie Eilish’s new album and Taylor Swift’s reigning blockbuster.  

Billie Eilish, Hit Me Hard and Soft (Darkroom/Interscope): Perhaps the most anticipated release of this month, Billie Eilish’s third LP Hit Me Hard and Soft debuted on Friday (May 17). The follow-up to her acclaimed 2021 sophomore set Happier Than Ever marked a first for Eilish, as it featured no advance singles, as the artist encouraged her fans to experience the album – largely focused on her self-discovery in terms of her identity and sexuality as she enters her 20s – all at once.  

And it seems many have done just that. Hit Me – which has racked up perhaps the strongest reviews yet of her already highly celebrated young career – has performed very well on streaming through its first five days of release, with every one of its 10 tracks still ranking in the top 25 of Spotify’s Daily Top Songs USA chart, with each garnering over a million spins each. Of course, there being only 10 tracks on the album may mean the album still ends up with a relatively modest overall stream total compared to some recent blockbusters with more gargantuan tracklists, but its impressive endurance across the board throughout the week should still lead to fairly resounding first-week numbers.  

The set should also sell quite well, with Eilish a reliably strong performer there – Happier sold 154,000 copies in its first week, making for well over half of the set’s overall first-week performance (238,000 equivalent album units). To help with those numbers, Eilish has released nine vinyl editions of Hit Me (one of which, a webstore exclusive, was signed), all in different-colored variants. There are also four separate CD options (standard CD; a signed CD exclusive to her webstore; a “splatter” CD where Eilish splattered paint across the CD booklets en masse, and then those were collated into their packaging; and a Target-exclusive CD containing a poster), as well as a cassette version, and a digital deluxe album that also includes isolated vocal tracks for the 10 songs on the album.  

Taylor Swift, The Tortured Poets Department (Republic): But of course, to get her third straight No. 1 album, Eilish will have to unseat the album that’s topped the chart for the last month: Taylor Swift’s historic-selling The Tortured Poets Department. This week, in its fourth week on top, Poets posted 260,000 units – mostly in streams, with the set remaining a consistently dominant performer on DSPs with the 31 tracks of its Anthology edition. (It was also assisted in the most recent frame from added interest following the resumption of her Eras Tour in Europe on May 9, with six Poets tracks now newly added to the setlist.)  

Revived live attention won’t be the only thing likely to help Poets’ performance on next week’s chart, though. On May 16 – at the end of the last tracking week – Swift posted pre-orders on her site for a May 17 delivery of new digital editions of her latest album, with three different variants that all also offered one “First Draft Phone Memo” version each of one of the album’s tracks (“Who’s Afraid of Little Old Me?,” “Cassandra” and ”The Black Dog”). In addition to that, her sales week could also still be impacted by a variety of CD edition releases – featuring bonus tracks and/or other collectibles — posted to her website for pre-order in May prior to this tracking week, whose exact shipping dates are currently unknown.  

The race could be a close one, as the excitement over Eilish’s brand-new release competes with the sheer overwhelming volume of Swift’s reigning behemoth. It’s one that’s sure to get a lot of attention in the pop community – particularly after Eilish’s comments in a Billboard March interview decrying artist wastefulness in releasing excessive vinyl variants were interpreted by many Swifties as a shot at Taylor. (Eilish later clarified that she was not singling out any artist with her comments, and acknowledged that she was guilty of the practice herself.)  

IN THE MIX 

Zayn, Room Under the Stairs (Mercury/Republic): Elsewhere in the pop world: Zayn goes country! The One Direction alum’s latest set is influenced by his love of Willie Nelson and Chris Stapleton, and is even co-helmed by the latter artist’s go-to producer Dave Cobb. The album is not expected to stream in particularly robust numbers – Zayn has not had a hit on the Billboard Hot 100 since 2020 – but it should sell respectably, thanks in part to the availability of six vinyl and four CD variants, as well as a deluxe digital album with five bonus “Z sides” tracks. 

New Kids on the Block, Still Kids (BMG): Speaking of boy band vets: Nearly four decades into their career, NKOTB remain hangin’ tough, and just released their eighth album Still Kids, still with the classic Donnie, Joey, Jordan, Jonathan and Danny lineup. The new set – their first since 2013’s 10, which reached No. 6 on the Billboard 200 — features collabs with fellow late-’80s survivors Taylor Dayne and DJ Jazzy Jeff, and is available in four vinyl and two CD variants.  

Cage the Elephant, Neon Pill (RCA): Kentucky hitmakers Cage the Elephant have been getting it done on rock radio and on tour for over 15 years now, and though their days of competing for the top of the Billboard 200 – their 2011 set Thank You Happy Birthday peaked at a career-best No. 2 – are likely over, they’re still going to make an impact each time out. Sixth album Neon Pill, featuring the Alternative Airplay-topping title track, is the band’s first album in five years, and is for sale in five vinyl variants and a standard CD edition.